M10:35
这次不是最好的那种。
It's not the greatest one.
我们见过几次那种明显在向我们大喊“快买”的机会，也见过几段明显高估、像是在大喊提醒我们的时期，而百分之九十的时候，市场都处在这两者之间，我们也不完全知道自己到底处在中间的哪个位置。
We've seen a few that scream at us, and we've seen a few periods of overvaluation that scream at us, and 90% of the time we're somewhere in between, and we don't know exactly where we are in between.
至于害怕这件事，你知道，我也不知道该怎么解决。
The business of being scared, you know, I don't know what you do about that.
如果，呃，如果你是那种——如果你的性格是，别人害怕的时候你自己也会跟着害怕，那大概率来说，长期下来你在证券投资上是赚不到很多钱的。
If, uh, if you're of that— if you have a temperament that when others are fearful, you're going to get scared yourself, you know, you are not going to make a lot of money in securities over time, in all probability.
这就是，呃，你知道，人们其实真的——要是他们不去看那些报价就好了——但当然，整个世界都在催着他们去看报价，而且不只是看，还要根据报价里那些很小的波动去做点什么。
That, uh, you know, people really— if they didn't look at quotations— but of course, the whole world is urging them to look at quotations, and more than that, do something based on small changes in quotations.
但如果你不这么想——我们以前也讲过——你想想，投资一个农场，和很多人买股票的方式相比，要理性得多。
But if you didn't think— we've talked about it before— think how much more rational investing in a farm is than the way many people buy stocks.
如果你买了一个农场，下一周会有人给你报价吗？
And if you buy a farm, do you get a quote next week?
下个月会有人给你报价吗？
Do you get a quote next month?
如果你买了一栋公寓楼，下一周或者下个月会有人给你报价吗？
If you buy an apartment house, do you get a quote next week or month?
不会。
No.
你会看着这栋公寓楼，或者这个农场，然后说，我原本预期它能产出这么多蒲式耳的大豆和玉米；如果它做到了，那就符合我的预期。
You look at the apartment house or the farm and you say, I expected it to produce so many bushels of soybeans and corn, and if it does that, it meets my expectations.
但很多人买了股票之后就会觉得，涨了就太好了，跌了就糟了。
But they buy a stock and they think if it goes up, it's wonderful, and if it goes down, it's bad.
我们的看法正好相反。
We think just the opposite.
跌了我们反而喜欢，因为我们可以再多买一点。
When it goes down, we love it because we'll buy more.
要是涨了，我们再想多买一点就很难受了。
And if it goes up, it kills us to buy more.
而且我，你知道，各种——你知道，Ben Graham 早就写过这个。
And I, you know, all kinds— you know, Ben Graham wrote about it.
这已经被解释过很多次了。
It's been explained.
但如果你没法让自己建立起那种心理状态，那别人一害怕你就会害怕，还会指望别人告诉你什么时候该买，这样你好像才能重新鼓起勇气之类的。
But if you can't get yourself in that mental attitude, you're going to be scared whenever everybody else is scared and expect somebody else to tell you when to buy and therefore get your courage back up or something.
你知道，我要是跟这位朋友说一句“现在是绝佳的买入时机”，我确实能大大提振他的勇气；但过一个星期，他又碰到另一个人告诉他世界快要完蛋了，他就会卖掉。
You know, I could get this fellow's courage up substantially by saying it's a wonderful time to buy, and then a week from now he'd run into somebody else that tells him the world is coming to an end and he'd sell.
我的意思是，这种人是经纪人的好朋友，但他自己是赚不到很多钱的。
I mean, he's a broker's friend, but he's not, he's not going to make a lot of money.
Charlie？
Charlie?
对，我觉得在我明白自己能够承受苦难之后，我就变得更有勇气了。
Yeah, I think I developed more courage after I learned I could handle hardship.
所以，也许你应该先稍微经历一点更多的失败，真正下场试试。
So maybe you should get your feet wet with a little more failure.
我当然是一直照着这个建议做的。
I've certainly followed that advice.
不，这——有些人确实没有那种——显然他们就是没有那种适合投资证券的性格、情绪稳定性，或者别的什么特质。
No, it— some people really do not have the— apparently they don't have the temperament, emotional stability, or whatever it may be to invest in securities.
如果根本没有报价给他们看，他们反而会过得好多了。
They'd be much better off if there were no quotations at all.
Keynes 以前也谈到过这一点。
And Keynes talked about that some in the past, too.
本来应该是一项资产的东西，却变成了每天都有一个报价，你知道，流动性还特别好。
To take something that should be an asset, a quotation every day, you know, terrific liquidity.
没人会说，我的农场流动性怎么样，或者类似这种话。
Nobody says, how liquid is my farm, or something of the sort.
所以他们不会指望价格来告诉他们，自己做得怎么样。
So they're not expecting the prices to tell them something about how they're doing.
什么市场在说这个，市场在说那个。
The market is saying this or that.
只要有人说市场在说这个、市场在说那个，我——你知道，这种说法有点让人难以置信——不过，大家对投资确实很感兴趣，所以人们就会整天不停地聊这个。
Whenever anybody says the market is saying this or that, I— it's, you know, it's sort of unbelievable that— but there's a lot of— there's a lot of interest in, in, in, in investing, and people are going to yak about it all the time.
不过说到底，真正重要的是，用一个还不错的价格买下一家好公司，然后把它放着，很长很长很长时间都别去管它。
And, and in the end, what counts is buying a good business at a decent price and then forgetting about it for a long, long, long time.
有些人做得到，有些人做不到。
And some people can do it and some people can't.