M11:20
嗯，Norman，你提到的这个发展趋势非常巨大。
Well, Norman, the development you refer to is huge.
我是说，真的非常巨大。
I mean, really huge.
而且这不只是 Amazon 的功劳，但 Amazon 确实是其中非常重要的一部分。
And it isn't just Amazon, but Amazon is a huge part of it.
他们在相当短的时间里取得的成就，以及他们还在不断取得的成就，都非常了不起。
And what they've accomplished in a fairly short period of time and continue to accomplish is remarkable.
他们培养出来的满意客户数量也是如此。无论是制造产品、零售，还是其他任何业务，只要涉及决策，我们都会认真、长时间地思考：在你刚才描述的那种强大趋势，确切地说是极其强大的趋势下，五年、十年或者二十年后，这个世界会是什么样子。
The number of satisfied customers they've developed. We don't make any decision involving even the manufacturing of goods, the retailing, whatever it is, without thinking long and hard about what the world will look like in 5 or 10 or 20 years, with that powerful trend, really hugely powerful trend that you just described.
所以，我们不会把这看成是要在他们擅长的游戏里击败他们。
So we're not—we don't look at that as something where we're going to try and beat them at their own game.
你知道，他们在这方面比我们强。
You know, they're better than we are at that.
所以，Charlie 和我绝不可能在能力上超过 Bezos，成为另一个更厉害的 Bezos；但我们确实会认真思考这个问题。
And so Charlie and I are not going to out-Bezos Bezos by a long shot, but we are going to think about that.
显然，这对 Precision Castparts 并不构成困扰。
It does not worry us, obviously, with Precision Castparts.
但对我们绝大多数业务来说，这也不是问题。不过，这是一个巨大的经济趋势。二十年前，还没有任何人把它放在雷达屏幕上，而最近却已经成了所有人都关注的焦点。
But it doesn't worry us in terms of the overwhelming majority of our businesses, but it is a huge economic trend that 20 years ago was not on anybody's radar screen, and lately has been on everybody's radar screen.
而且，很多公司，包括我们在少数几个领域，也还没有找到参与其中或者应对它的方法。
And many of them have not—including us in a few areas—figured out the way to either participate in it or to counter it.
GEICO 就是一个很好的例子。它所在的行业必须适应变化，而有些人比其他人更好地完成了这种转变。
GEICO is a good example of a company in an industry that had to adjust to change, and some people made the change better than others.
我们在互联网方面反应比较慢。
We were slow on the internet.
电话对我们一直非常有效，你知道，传统广告也是如此。因为电话一直运作得很好，所以人们总是会对思考新的可能性产生抵触。
The phone had worked so well for us, you know, this traditional advertising, and the phone had worked so well that, you know, there's always a resistance to think about new possibilities.
当我们看到互联网正在发生什么之后，就全力投入了，你知道，移动端之类的领域也一样。
When we saw what was happening on the internet, we jumped in with both feet, and, you know, with mobile and whatever.
不过，资本——资本主义的本质就是，总有人在想：如果你有一门好生意，我该怎么把它从你手里夺走，并且把它做得更好？
But there are capital— the nature of capitalism is somebody's always trying to figure out, if you've got some good business, how do I take it away from you and improve on it?
而且我想说，这种影响不只是来自 Amazon，也来自其他玩同一种游戏的公司。它们对整个行业的全部影响，远远还没有完全显现出来。
And the effect, I would say, not just of Amazon, but of others that are playing the same game—the full effect on industry is far from having been seen.
我的意思是，这是一股非常、非常强大的力量。它已经让很多人陷入困境，还会让更多人受到冲击。
I mean, it is a big, big force, and it will—it already has disrupted plenty of people, and it will disrupt more.
我认为 Berkshire 的处境相当不错。
I think Berkshire is quite well situated.
首先，我们有一个很大的优势：我们从来没有把自己看成是从某个单一行业起步的公司。
For one thing, one big advantage we have is we didn't ever see ourselves as starting out in one industry.
我的意思是，我们确实进入过百货商店行业，但我们从没把自己看成是百货商店公司。
I mean, we didn't go into—we went into department stores, but we didn't think of ourselves as department stores.
我们也没把自己看成是做钢铁的、做轮胎的，或者类似这样的公司。
We didn't think of ourselves as steel guys or tire guys or anything of that sort.
所以，我们一直把自己看成是拥有资本、需要进行资本配置的公司。
So we've thought of ourselves as having capital to allocate.
如果你一开始就专注于某个特定行业，把全部时间都花在研究怎样把轮胎做得更好，或者研究其他类似的事情上，我觉得你很难拥有那种灵活的思维。相比之下，如果你只是认为自己手里有一大笔资本，希望这笔资本还会不断增长，然后不断想办法判断，下一步用这笔资本做什么才是最好的选择，那样的思维会灵活得多。
If you start with a given industry focus and you spend your whole time working on a way to make a better tire or whatever it may be, I think it's hard to have the flexibility of mind that you have if you just think you have a large, hopefully large and growing pile of capital and are trying to figure out what the next best move is that you can make with that capital.
我觉得在这方面，我们确实有真正的优势。不过我觉得，那位先生……我觉得 Amazon 也有真正的优势。它非常专注于让数以亿计的客户总体上都感到满意：他们想买什么，就能很快收到什么；而且他们想怎么购物，就能怎么购物。要是我拥有一大批购物中心之类的产业，我肯定会认真思考一下，十年、二十年以后它们可能会是什么样子。
I think we do have a real advantage that way, but I think the fellow that—I think Amazon's got a real advantage too, and this intense focus on having, you know, hundreds of millions of generally very happy customers getting very quick delivery of something that they want to get promptly, and they want to shop the way they shop, and they—And if I owned a bunch of shopping malls or something like that, I would be thinking plenty hard about what they might look like 10 or 20 years from now.