1995年股东大会 · 巴菲特：为何企业的长期ROE很难超过12-13% — 文稿

M10:00

Warren，我是来自 Indiana 州 Elkhart 的 Frank Martin。

Warren, I'm Frank Martin from Elkhart, Indiana.

你写过很多，讲的是整个 American industry 的股本回报率这个东西，基本上长期都固定在百分之十二到十三这个区间，很难变。

You have written extensively on the subject of the immutability of return on equity for American industry as a whole being stuck in the 12 to 13% range.

既然我们现在高于这个平均值，你觉得有哪些力量会让这个数字随着时间推移又回归到平均水平？

What forces do you see, since we're above the mean, to cause that number to regress to the mean over time?

M20:23

对，确实是这样。

Yeah, it's true.

过去这几年这个数字确实更高一些，不过 Fortune 在这一期里有些挺有意思的数据，统计了 Fortune 500 这个群体每十年的回报率是多少——当然，这个群体本身也是会变化的。

It has— It has been higher in the last few years, although Fortune's got some interesting figures in the current issue on the 500 that shows decade by decade what the return has been on the Fortune 500 group, which is a shifting group, of course.

而且这个数字总体上确实一直比较稳定，不过如果说得更准确一点，我会说它更像是卡在百分之十二到十三之间，而不是百分之十一到十二之间，大概是这样。

And it's, it's tended to stick, although I would say it was more between 12 and 13 than 11 and 12, probably, in that one.

在某些行业里，这个回报率在一定程度上被猛推高了一下，因为他们终于把 health liabilities 放进了资产负债表里，于是股东权益就下降了。

The return, to some extent, in certain businesses, has gotten a big kick because they finally put the health liabilities on the balance sheet and therefore reduce equity.

所以你看，任何会把股东权益压低的做法，只要不影响你维持同样销售规模的能力，实际上就等于提高了 American business 的杠杆；把 health liabilities 放上资产负债表，效果就是这样。

So if you— anything you do that tends to pull down equity, if it doesn't change your ability to do the same sales volume, it's leveraged American business in effect by putting the health liabilities on the balance sheet.

当然，也可能是我错了。

I may be wrong.

也可能企业真的能赚到百分之十五左右，但我觉得竞争因素长期来看还是会不断把这个数字往下压一点。

It may be that business can earn 15% or so, but I think competitive factors tend to over time keep pushing that number down somewhat.

而且你仔细想想，百分之十二或者十三，其实已经相当不错了。

And 12 or 13, when you think about it, is not bad at all.

我是说，在利率百分之七的环境下，这样的水平会让股票和股权在权益资本里的价值，比放在世界上其他地方要高得多。

I mean, it's, it's, it's, it's a level with 7% interest rates that allows stocks and equity to be worth much more when employed in equity than, than, than elsewhere in the world.

不过如果你非要我给未来十年选一个数字，我会选百分之十二到十三之间的某个数，但这不代表我一定说得准。

But if I had to pick a figure for the next 10 years, I would pick some figure between 12 and 13, but that doesn't mean I'd be right on it.

Charlie？

Charlie?

M31:48

对，我觉得那些公开发表的平均数字，不管怎么说，都把真实赚到的回报高估了。

Yeah, I think all of those published averages overstate what's earned anyway.

因为那里面都是最大的公司，都是赢家，都是那些股票能卖出很高倍数的公司，所以它们可以用这些股票去向别人换高收益资产。

They're the biggest companies, they're the winners, they're the ones whose stock sells at high multiples so they can issue it to other people for high-earning assets.

而很多低回报的公司，则在统计数据里不断被剔除出去。

And many of the low-return people are constantly being dropped out of the figures.

当然，你也可以说以前也是这样，不过，呃，在我看来，如果 American business 税后平均资本回报率真的能有百分之十三，那会很令人惊讶。

Now, you can say that was true in the past too, but, uh, I, I, it would be remarkable to me if, if on average American business earned 13% on capital after taxes.

M22:27

顺便说一句，那些数字——这不是个特别大的项目，但也绝对不能说完全无关紧要——它们没有体现一些成本，比如说 stock options 的成本。

Those figures, incidentally— this isn't a huge item, but it, but it, but it's not totally insignificant— they don't show us the cost, for example, the cost of stock options.

而这个成本其实是 American shareholders 在承担。

And the American shareholders paid that.

所以 American shareholder 实际拿到的股本回报，并没有那些数字显示得那么高，虽然这不算一个特别大的因素。

So the American shareholder has not gotten the returns on equity shown by those numbers, although it's not a huge factor.

不过我一点也不会意外，如果光是这一项被省略掉的成本，就有大概百分之零点二到零点三的影响。

But I wouldn't be surprised if it was, you know, 2 or 3 tenths of a percent just for that one cost that's omitted.

如果你让我把成本都省掉不算，那我也能给你展示一个非常高的股本回报率。

If you let me omit my costs, I can show a very high return on equity.

4 区？

Zone 4?