M20:50
嗯，跟我们其他所有对话差不多。
Well, it would go like all our other conversations.
他会先说十五分钟的不行，然后我会根据他在说“不”的时候投入了多少情绪，来判断他到底是不是真的喜欢这笔交易。
He would say no for about 15 minutes, and I would gauge by the degree to which he— the emotion he put into his no's, whether he really liked the deal or not.
不过，呃，我们两个在房地产方面其实都有相当多的经验，Charlie 早年也是靠房地产赚到第一桶金的。
But the, uh, we both had a fair amount of experience in real estate, and Charlie made his early money in real estate.
呃，第二点才是更重要的一点。
Uh, the second point is the more important point.
房地产不是 commodity，但我觉得它通常会被定价得更准确，尤其是已经开发成熟的房地产，大多数时候定价都更准确。
Real estate is not a commodity, but it— I think it tends to be more accurately priced, particularly developed real estate, more accurately priced most of the time.
当然，在 RTC 那段时期，你会看到大量交易，而且当时的卖方非常不想继续持有这些资产，程度非常强烈，他们甚至根本搞不清自己到底持有什么，诸如此类的情况很多。所以那个时候，错误定价就很多。
Now, during the RTC period, when you had huge amounts of transactions and you had a— you had an owner that didn't want to be an owner in a very big way, and they didn't know what the hell they owned and all of that sort of thing, I mean, you had a lot of mispricing then.
我也知道，这个房间里有几个人当时从中赚了很多钱。
And I know a few people in this room that made a lot of money off of that.
但是在大多数情况下，要找到真正被严重错价的房地产，是很难的。
But under most conditions, it's hard to find real estate that's really mispriced.
我是说，当我看现在 REITs 在做的那些交易时，你能拿到很多这方面的信息，你会发现，它们都非常相似。
I mean, when I look at the transactions that REITs engage in currently, and you get a lot of information on that sort of thing, you know, they're very similar.
不过这是个竞争激烈的世界，而且你知道，他们大致都清楚，一栋位于 Chicago 或别的什么地方的 Class A 写字楼，通常会产生多少收益。
But it's a competitive world, and, you know, they all know about what a Class A office building in, you know, in Chicago or wherever it may be is going to produce.
所以，至少他们心里是有个数的。
So, at least they have— they have a sense of it.
当然，事后看，也许他们最后全都判断错了，因为可能会发生一些不寻常的事件。但大多数时候，在房地产世界里，要去反驳当下主流的市场共识，其实很难。
They may all be wrong, as it turns out, because of some unusual events, but it's hard to argue with the current conventional wisdom most of the time in the real estate world.
不过偶尔，这个领域里也确实会出现一些很大的机会。
But occasionally, there have been some, you know, there could be big opportunities in the field.
但如果真有这种机会，那很可能一定是因为房地产融资那边由于某种原因出现了很大的混乱。
But if they exist, it will certainly be because there's a— probably there'd be a lot of chaos in real estate financing for one reason or another.
我们也做过一些房地产融资。
We've done some real estate financing.
大概得等到资金供给在相当大程度上被切断，整个市场才可能普遍出现比较大的错误定价。
You have to have the money shut off to quite a degree, probably, to get any big mispricing across the board.
Charlie？
Charlie?