M20:49
嗯，金融公司本来就比很多公司更难分析。
Well, financial companies are more difficult to analyze than many companies.
比如说保险行业吧，你知道，其中最难评估、也是最大的单一项目，就算你自己拥有这家公司，也很难评估，那就是赔付准备金和赔付理算费用准备金。
I mean, if you take the insurance business, you know, the biggest single element that is very difficult to evaluate, even if you own the company, is the loss and loss adjustment expense reserve.
而这对任何一个特定时期的账面盈利都会有非常大的影响。
And that has a huge impact on reported earnings of any given period.
而且周期越短，哪怕假设只发生一点点变化，带来的影响都可能越大。
And the shorter the period, the more the impact can be from just small changes in assumptions.
你知道，我们现在大概有四百五十亿美元的赔付准备金。
You know, we carry, we'll say, $45 billion of loss reserves.
但是说真的，如果你要我拿命打赌这四百五十亿美元最后到底是多提了一点，还是少提了一点，我得想很久。
But, you know, if I had to bet my life on whether $45 billion turned out to be a little over, a little under, I mean, it'd be a think a long time.
而且这个数字完全也可能是四百五十五亿美元，或者四百四十五亿美元。
And you could just as easily have a figure of $45.5 billion or $44.5 billion.
如果你在乎的是某个时期要报出漂亮的盈利数字，那这个就很容易拿来做文章。
And if you were concerned about reporting good earnings in a given period, that would be an easy game to play.
银行的话，你知道，基本上就是看这些贷款到底好不好。
In a bank, you know, it basically is whether the loans are any good.
我也当过银行的董事，你知道，这方面我也遇到过意外。
And I've been on the boards of banks, and that's, you know, I've gotten surprises.
这东西很难判断。
It's tough to tell.
金融公司就是这样。
It's financial companies.
如果你分析的是像 WD-40、See's Candy，或者我们的制砖业务之类的公司，你知道，它们未来前景可能有好有坏，但你不太可能会在它们当前的经营状况上把自己骗得太厉害。
If you're analyzing something like WD-40, you know, or See's Candy or our brick business or whatever, you know, they may have good or bad prospects, but you're not likely to be fooling yourself much about what's going on currently.
但金融机构就难多了。
But with financial institutions, it's much tougher.
再把 derivatives 也加进来，你知道，大概没人能真正完全清楚——甚至很难说能在一个合理区间内弄清——某些情况——
Then you can throw in derivatives on top of it, and, you know, no one probably knows perfectly what some of the, or even within a reasonable range, the exact condition—
——世界上一些最大银行的真实状况。
—of some of the biggest banks in the world.
不过这又回到了你说的评级机构尽职调查这个问题。
But that brings you back to the due diligence question of the agencies.
Freddie 和 Fannie 的董事会里都有评级很高、非常聪明、而且很懂金融的人，可结果呢，你知道，一个是五十亿美元，另一个显然是九十亿美元。
You had very high-grade, very smart, financially smart people on the boards of both Freddie and Fannie, and yet, you know, one was $5 billion and one was apparently $9 billion.
这些都是很大的数字。
Those are big numbers.
而且我不觉得那些人有失职。
And I don't think those people were negligent.
只是说，要精确知道一家金融机构内部到底在发生什么，真的非常非常难。
And it's just, it's very, very tough to know precisely what's going on in a financial institution.
Charlie 和我都当过 Salomon 的董事，Charlie 还在审计委员会里。
Charlie and I were directors of Salomon, and Charlie was on the audit committee.
我都记不清你发现的其中几个问题具体有多大了，但你知道，关键在于还有些东西没被发现。
And I forget the size of a few of those things that you found, but you know what wasn't found.
这也不代表下面那些人就是骗子之类的。
And that doesn't mean the people below are crooks or anything like that.
这只是说明，面对成千上万、非常复杂的交易，而且有时候还牵涉到包含多个变量的计算，这件事真的非常难处理。
It just means that it's very tough with thousands and thousands and thousands of complicated transactions, sometimes involving computations involving multiple variables.
在任何一个特定时点，要搞清楚实际情况到底是怎么样，可能会非常困难。
It can be very hard to figure out where things stand at any given moment.
当然了，当两边的数字都变得非常巨大时，这些巨大数字里哪怕只是很小的变动，都会对季度或者年度数据产生惊人的影响。
And of course, when the numbers get huge on both sides and you get small changes in these huge numbers, they have this incredible effect on quarterly or yearly figures.
因为这些都会一下子集中体现出来，这些调整会在很短的一段时间里扎堆出现。
'Cause it all comes lumped in, those adjustments come lumped in a short period of time.
所以我就是觉得，你得接受这样一个事实：保险、银行、金融公司，我们这些年已经见过各种各样的金融公司问题了，有欺诈，也有严重失误，这么多年一直是一个接一个。
So I just think you have to accept the fact that insurance, banking, finance companies, we've seen all kinds of finance company, both frauds and just big mistakes over time, just one after another over the years.
这个领域本身就是更危险、更难分析的。
And it's just a more dangerous field to analyze.
这并不代表你不能从里面赚钱。
That doesn't mean you can't make money on it.
我们就在里面赚过很多钱，但这确实很难。
We've made a lot of money on it, but it's difficult.
现在，显然，在 GEICO 这种公司里，你保的基本上都是同一类东西，也就是汽车驾驶员，所以在这种业务里，你的统计数据会更有效；但如果你承保的是 asbestos liability 这类东西，那你在估算上就会面临大得多的误差风险。
Now, obviously, at GEICO, where you're insuring pretty much the same thing, auto drivers, your statistics are much more valid in something like that than they will be if you're taking something like asbestos liability; you're subject to far greater errors in estimation.
这并不是说那些人不是出于善意在经营，但你想想看，如果把二十家最大保险公司的 asbestos 相关估算拿出来看，
Doesn't mean the people aren't operating in good faith, but, you know, I would just take the asbestos estimates of the 20 largest insurance companies.
我敢打赌，它们偏差都会很大，只不过我不知道是偏向哪一边。
I will bet you they're way off, but I don't know in which direction.
这大概就是金融公司的本质特点。
And that's, uh, that's sort of the nature of financial companies.
就评级机构来说，我不会因为他们没法深挖财务报表、没能发现问题而去责怪他们，因为你提到的那些公司，全都有知名的大牌审计师。
I wouldn't fault the rating agencies in terms of not being able to dig into the financials and find things that, you know, all of the companies that you've talked about have had big-name auditors.
还有，Berkshire 的审计师去年花了多少小时来审计我们？
And, uh, our auditors at Berkshire, how many hours did they spend last year?
我也说不准，可能有六万、七万个小时吧。
You know, I don't know what it would be, probably 60,000, 70,000 hours.
而且我敢肯定，其他那些大机构，比如说大型银行，如果你拿来比较的话，他们花的时间还要更多。
Uh, and I'm sure at other, you know, if you take major banks, they're spending more than that.
但是，你说他们能不能对这些数字做到完全确定？
But, you know, can they be certain of the numbers?
我表示怀疑。
I doubt it.
Charlie？
Charlie?