M11:20
嗯，Norman，你说的这个发展趋势非常巨大。
Well, Norman, the development you refer to is huge.
我是说，真的非常巨大。
I mean, really huge.
而且不只是 Amazon，不过 Amazon 确实是其中很大的一部分。
And it isn't just Amazon, but Amazon is a huge part of it.
他们在相当短的时间里取得的成就，以及现在还在持续取得的成就，都非常了不起。
And what they've accomplished in a fairly short period of time and continue to accomplish is remarkable.
他们积累了大量满意的客户。而我们现在不管做什么决策，哪怕是涉及商品制造、零售，不管是什么业务，都会非常认真地去想，五年、十年、二十年以后，在你刚才描述的这个强大趋势——真的非常非常强大的趋势——影响下，世界会是什么样子。
The number of satisfied customers they've developed and we don't make any decision, uh, involving, uh, even the manufacturing of goods, the retailing, whatever it is, without thinking long and hard about what the world will look like in 5 or 10 or 20 years, uh, with that powerful trend, really hugely powerful trend that you just described.
所以我们不会——我们不会把这看成一件要在他们最擅长的游戏里跟他们硬拼的事。
So we're not— we don't look at that as something where we're going to try and beat them at their own game.
你知道，他们在这方面就是比我们强。
You know, they're better than we are at that.
所以 Charlie 和我不可能在 Bezos 最擅长的事情上比 Bezos 做得更好，差得远呢，但我们会认真去思考这件事。
And so Charlie and I are not going to out-Bezos Bezos by a long shot, but we are going to think about that.
显然，这对 Precision Castparts 来说并不让我们担心。
It does not worry us, obviously, with the Precision Castparts.
不过就我们绝大多数业务来说，这也不会让我们担心，但这确实是一个巨大的经济趋势，二十年前还不在任何人的雷达范围内，而到了最近，已经进入所有人的视野了。
But it doesn't, it doesn't worry us in terms of the overwhelming majority of our businesses, but it is a huge economic trend that 20 years ago was not on anybody's radar screen, and lately has been on everybody's radar screen.
而且很多人都还没有——包括我们在少数几个领域也是——还没找到办法，要么参与进去，要么应对它。
And many of them have not— including us in a few areas— have not figured the way to either participate in it or to counter it.
GEICO 就是个很好的例子，它所在的行业必须适应变化，而有些人做得比另一些人更好。
GEICO is a good example of a company in an industry that had to adjust to change, and some people made the change better than others.
我们在 internet 这件事上反应是慢了。
We were slow on the internet.
电话这种方式过去对我们一直特别有效，你知道，传统广告也是一样，电话效果太好了，所以人总是会本能地抗拒去想新的可能性。
The phone had worked so well for us, you know, this traditional advertising, and the phone had worked so well that, you know, there's always a resistance to think about new possibilities.
等我们看到 internet 上发生了什么以后，我们就全力投入了，还有 mobile 以及其他这些东西。
When we saw what was happening on the internet, we jumped in with both feet, and, you know, with mobile and whatever.
但资本主义的本质就是，只要你有一门好生意，别人就总会想方设法去琢磨——如果你有一门好生意，他们就总在想，我怎么把它从你手里抢过来，并且做得更好？
But the nature of capitalism is somebody's always trying to figure— if you've got some good business, they're always trying to figure out how do I take it away from you and improve on it?
而 Amazon，当然也包括其他玩同样这套的人，对整个行业造成的影响，我会说，它全部的影响还远远没有完全显现出来。
And the effect, I would say just of Amazon, but others that are playing the same game, the effect on industry, the full effect is far from having been seen.
我是说，这是一股非常非常强大的力量，它已经扰乱了很多人，而且以后还会扰乱更多人。
I mean, it is a big, big force, and it will— it already has disrupted plenty of people, and it will disrupt more.
我觉得 Berkshire 现在所处的位置是相当不错的。
I think Berkshire is quite well situated.
首先，我们一个很大的优势就是，我们从来没有把自己看成是一开始就属于某一个行业。
For one thing, one big advantage we have is we didn't ever see ourselves as starting out in one industry.
我的意思是，我们确实做过 department stores，但我们并不把自己定义成 department stores 公司。
I mean, we didn't go into— we went into department stores, but we didn't think of ourselves as department stores.
我们也不觉得自己是什么钢铁行业的人，或者轮胎行业的人，或者类似那种身份。
We didn't think of ourselves as steel guys or tire guys or anything of that sort.
所以我们一直把自己看成是资本配置者。
So we've thought of ourselves as having capital to allocate.
如果你一开始就盯着某一个行业，把全部时间都花在怎么造出更好的轮胎之类的事情上，我觉得你就很难拥有那种思维上的灵活性；而如果你只是觉得自己手里有一大堆——希望是越来越大的一大堆——资本，然后去思考，拿这些资本下一步能做出的最佳动作是什么，那你的灵活性就会高得多。
If you start with a given industry focus and you spend your whole time working on a way to make a better tire or whatever it may be, I think it's hard to have the flexibility of mind that you have if you just think you have a large, hopefully large and growing pile of capital and trying to figure out what is the next best move that you can make with that capital.
我觉得我们在这方面确实有真正的优势，但我也觉得那位——我觉得 Amazon 也有非常明显的优势。它非常专注于服务那些规模上亿、而且总体上都很满意的客户，让他们能非常快地收到自己想尽快拿到的东西，按他们自己习惯的方式购物。要是我手上有一大堆 shopping mall 之类的资产，那我一定会非常认真地去想，十年或者二十年以后，它们会变成什么样。
I think we do have a real advantage that way, but I think the fellow that— I think Amazon's got a real advantage too, and this intense focus on having, you know, hundreds of millions of generally very happy customers getting very quick delivery of something that they want to get promptly, and they want to shop the way they shop, and they— and if I owned a bunch of shopping malls or something like that, I would be thinking plenty hard about what they might look like 10 or 20 years from now.
Charlie？
Charlie?