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1995年股东大会 · 巴菲特谈自己为何喜欢投资新闻业的公司

29 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 3:27
M1
M10:00

David Winters,来自 New Jersey 的 Mountain Lakes。

David Winters, Mountain Lakes, New Jersey.

很多年前你说过你很喜欢 newspaper 这个行业,后来随着时间过去,我想你也说过你对它的喜欢程度稍微下降了一点。我有点想知道,你现在怎么看这个行业?还有,你能不能也给我们稍微预测一下它的前景?

Years ago you said you loved the newspaper business, and then over time I guess you said it declined a bit in how much you loved it, and I'm kind of wondering how you feel about it now and if you can prognosticate a little bit for us at all.
M2
M20:17

嗯,我以前喜欢它,主要是两个方面。

Well, I used to love it in 2 respects.

我既喜欢它的经济属性,也喜欢它本身这件事带来的乐趣。而且对这个行业活动本身的喜爱,并没有减少。

I loved the economics and I loved the activity both, and the activity, the love of the activity has not diminished.

它的经济性,跟世界上几乎任何一种生意相比,依然是好得惊人的。

The economics are still exceptionally good compared to virtually any business in the world.

当然,没有十五年前那么好了。

They aren't quite as good as they were 15 years ago.

所以它们确实——我几年前写过这个——原本看起来几乎是最牢不可破的 franchise 之一,现在仍然是非常好的生意,但已经没有十五年前那么牢不可破了。

So they have—I wrote about that a couple of years ago—whereas what seemed almost the most bulletproof of franchises is still an exceptionally good business, but it isn't quite as bulletproof as it was 15 years ago.

就像十年或二十年前可能给人的那种感觉一样。

As might have been the case 10 or 20 years ago.

我仍然觉得,这大概还是世界上最有意思的生意之一。不过如果你只谈纯粹的经济性,我想不出有多少别的生意,是那种如果我这一辈子只能持有一项资产,我会比在一个只有一家 newspaper 的城市里拥有那家 newspaper 更想拥有的。

I still think it's about as interesting a business as there is in the world, I mean, but if you're talking pure economics, I can't think of many other businesses that if I just owned one asset over my life that I would rather own than a newspaper in a single-newspaper town.

但我不会再像十年或十五年前那样,有那种绝对确定的感觉了。

But I wouldn't have quite the feeling of absolute certainty that I had, that I would have had 10 or 15 years ago.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M3
M31:37

对,我觉得这很明显。

Yeah, I think it's obvious.

那些 newspaper 的老板们,第一次开始有那么一点 paranoia 了。

The newspaper proprietors are getting a touch of paranoia for the first time.

我是说,他们担心电子化革命,也担心年轻人——你知道——不看报了。

I mean, they worry about the electronic revolution, they worry about the fact that young people, you know, don't read.

所以现在去参加 newspaper 行业大会,已经不像以前那么好玩了。

It's not as much fun going to newspaper conventions as it used to be.
M2
M22:01

不过他们还是在赚非常多的钱。

They're still making exceptional money.

我的意思是,这才是有意思的地方。

I mean, that's the interesting thing.
M3
M32:04

啊,但是——我听你说过不下十几次了——人们似乎并不在乎自己在几楼,他们在乎的只是电梯是在往上走还是往下走。

Ah, but they—I've heard you say a dozen times, people don't seem to care what floor they're at, just whether the elevator is going up or down.
M2
M22:12

对,没错,确实是这样。

That's right, that is true.

人们待在刚从一楼升到二楼的电梯里,会感觉比待在从一百楼降到九十九楼的电梯里更好。

People feel better when they're on the 2nd floor of an elevator that's just come from 1 than they do when they're on the 99th floor coming down from 100.

这一点毫无疑问。

There's no question about that.

他们心里会有这种预期。

They have this projection.

当然,尤其是当他们一直身处那种赚钱几乎是自动发生的行业时,更是这样。因为他们就会开始去想,你知道,像这样一些问题:如果没有这种有利地位,他们到底是不是真的有能力赚很多钱?而这种事他们以前根本不需要反复琢磨,所以这会让他们不舒服。

And of course, it's particularly the case where they've been in a business where the money, where the profits were automatic, because they start thinking about, you know, questions of whether they really have the ability to make a lot of money absent this favored position, and that's not something they've had to dwell on before, so it can make them uncomfortable.

他们现在都在大喊 newsprint 价格的问题。

They're all screaming about newsprint prices.

我们可能也会跟着喊一点,不过我的意思是,如果你把长期做 newsprint 生意和做 newspaper 生意相比,那简直就是个笑话。

We probably scream about them a little bit too, but I mean, if you compare being in the newsprint business over time to being in the newspaper business, I mean, it's a joke.

而且 newsprint 的价格,如果你从十五年、二十年前,或者十年前的任何一个时点画图来看,newspaper 的售价,还有广告价格,涨得都更多。

And newsprint prices, if you can graph them from any point, you know, 15 or 20 years ago or 10 years ago, and the price of the newspaper, the price of advertising has gone up more.

所以,听到他们在那儿大喊不公平,其实挺有意思的,因为过去十二个月这些价格确实涨了很多,而且接下来六个月还会再涨一些。

I mean, it is interesting to hear them yelling foul because they have moved a lot in the last 12 months and they'll move some more in the next 6 months.

但相信我,做 newspaper 生意,还是比做 newsprint 生意强得多。

But believe me, it's better to be in the newspaper business than the newsprint business.

六区?

Zone 6?