M11:45
对，嗯——可能是第二个数字。
Yeah, well, the— it might be the second figure.
也就是利润占 GDP 的百分比，可能会让社会上的其他一些群体担心，因为它说明的是，美国企业这些年表现得非常非常好。
Which is the profits as a percentage of GDP, might be a concern for other segments of society because what it indicates is that American business has done wonderfully well in recent years.
虽然总有人说，美国企业因为美国税率以及一大堆别的因素处于多么糟糕的劣势，但事实是，美国企业繁荣得惊人。
And though it says how— what a terrible disadvantage it has because of U.S. tax rates and a host of other things, you know, the facts are that American business has prospered incredibly.
至于第一个比较，它很大程度上受到这样一个事实的影响：我们正处在一种利率环境里，而 Charlie 和我如果放在没多少年前，大概都会觉得这种情况几乎不可能出现。
And the first comparison is very much affected by the fact that we live in an interest rate environment which Charlie and I probably would've thought was almost impossible not too many years ago.
很明显，如果政府债券收益率是百分之一，那利润的价值就会比政府债券收益率是百分之五的时候高得多。
And obviously, profits are worth a whole lot more if the government bond yield is 1% than they're worth if the government bond yield is 5%.
所以这又回到了，你知道，Charlie 在那部电影里谈到的选择和机会成本。
And so, it gets back in, you know, Charlie in that movie talked about alternatives and opportunity cost.
对很多人来说，机会成本就是——是持有一大堆几乎不付什么收益的债券，还是持有股票；股票按历史标准看卖得相当贵，但当年那些历史价格并不是在这样的利率水平下出现的。
And for many people, the opportunity cost is— is owning a lot of bonds, which pay practically nothing, or owning stocks, which are selling at fairly high prices historically, but they weren't selling at those historic prices with interest rates like this.
所以我不会——我是会看这些数字，但我也会把它们放在这样一个背景里来看，那就是我们正生活在一个利率低得惊人的世界。
So I would not— I, I look at those numbers, but I also look at them in the context of the fact that we're, we're living in a world that has incredibly low interest rates.
问题就在于，这种情况还会持续多久。
And the question is, is how long those are going to prevail.
会不会像日本那样，一持续就是一二十年、几十年，还是说我们会回到我们原来认为正常的利率水平？
Is it going to be something like Japan that goes on decade after decade, or will we be back to what we thought was normal interest rates?
如果回到正常利率，那以现在这个价格来看，股票就会显得相当高了。
If we get back to what are normal interest rates, stocks at these prices will look pretty high.
如果继续维持这种利率，股票就会显得非常便宜。
If we continue with these kind of interest rates, stocks will look very cheap.
现在我把答案给你了，你自己挑一个吧。
And now I've given you the answer, and you can take your pick.
不过，既然我们连已经发生的事、以及现在存在的局面都没预测对，为什么还会有人来问我们对未来的预测呢？
Well, since we failed to predict what happened and what exists now, why would anybody ask us what our prediction is in the future?
对了，顺便说一句，有一件事我可以向你保证，就我所知或者按我的记忆，Charlie 和我从来没有因为宏观因素而做出过一次收购，或者拒绝过一次收购。
Yeah, we incidentally— the one thing I can assure you, Charlie and I, to my knowledge or my memory, I can't recall ever us making an acquisition or turning down one based on macro factors.
有交易来的时候我们当然会讨论，但不管是 See's Candies 还是什么，像 Burlington Northern，我们买的时候总体经济环境其实糟得很。
And we talk about deals when they come along, but whether it was See's Candies or whatever it might have been, the Burlington Northern, we bought at a terrible time, general economic conditions.
但我们不谈这个，这根本不会成为讨论重点，因为我们知道，未来十二个月、二十四个月、三十——我们知道自己不知道那会是什么样子；但如果我们买的是一家打算持有一百年的企业，这其实真的没多大影响。
But we don't talk, it just doesn't come up because we know we don't know what the next 12 months, 24 months, 30— we know we don't know what that's going to look like, but it doesn't really make any difference if we're buying a business to hold for 100 years.
我们要做的，是判断这门生意长期平均下来大概能有多强的盈利能力，它的竞争护城河有多稳，以及类似这些东西。
What we have to do is figure out what's likely to be the average profitability of the business over time and how strong its competitive moat is and that sort of thing.
所以，嗯，大家很难相信这一点。
So, uh, people have trouble believing that.
他们觉得我们会聊这些东西。
They think we talk about it.
我们觉得，任何一家雇了 economist 的公司，你知道，肯定都是员工多了一个。
We think any company that has an economist, you know, certainly has one employee too many.
Charlie？
Charlie?