M10:15
这个嘛，我们不知道房地产接下来会怎么样。
Well, we don't, we don't know what real estate is going to do.
几年前它会怎么走，我们当时也不知道。
We didn't know what it was going to do a few years ago.
我们当时觉得它在某些方面已经有点危险了，但是，但是这个真的，这个真的很难判断。
We thought it was getting kind of dangerous in certain ways, but, but it's very, it's very hard to tell.
不过我可以这么说，就我们——就我看到的情况来看，而且我确实会看到很多数据，另外顺便说一句，California 是一个非常大的——我是说，California 内部其实有很多不同的市场。
I would say this, from what we're— what I'm seeing, and I do see a lot of data, there's— and California, incidentally, is a very big— I mean, there are many markets within California.
Stockton 会和 San Francisco 很不一样，诸如此类。
Stockton is going to be different than San Francisco and so on.
但在过去这几个月里，你能看到市场活动确实明显升温了。
But in the last few months, you, you've seen a real pickup in activity.
虽然价格低了很多。
Although at much lower prices.
但是你会看到——我觉得在中低价位的房子上，确实出现了一些变化。
But you've seen— I think you've seen something in the medium to lower price houses.
当然了，在 California 所谓的中档，和在 Nebraska 说的中档，意思是不一样的。
And medium means a different thing in California than it does in Nebraska.
不过，不过你会看到，大概在七十五万美元及以下的房子这个区间，市场活动确实明显增加了，出价的人多了很多。
But, but you've seen in maybe $750,000 and under houses, you've seen a real pickup in activity, many more bidders.
你还没有看到——你还没有看到价格反弹。
You haven't seen— you haven't seen a bounce back in price.
房价还是明显下跌的，而且不同地区情况也不一样。
Prices are down significantly and varies by the area.
不过，看起来是这样，就是之前有一段时间实行了 foreclosure moratorium，所以这会造成一些市场扭曲。
But it, it looks as if, you know, you had a foreclosure moratorium for a while, and so you, you get into distortions because of that.
但是从我们房地产经纪业务的数据来看——我们在 Southern California 的 Orange County、Los Angeles County 和 San Diego County 拥有最大的房地产经纪公司，Prudential California Realty，它归 MidAmerican 所有——我们看到的是，我会说，在这些已经大幅下跌的价格水平上，中低价位这个群体已经接近稳定了。
But what it looks like looking at our real estate brokerage data— and we have the largest real estate brokerage firm in Southern California, in Orange County, Los Angeles County, and San Diego County, Prudential California Realty, that's owned by MidAmerican— we, we see, uh, something close, I would say, to stability at these much reduced prices in the medium to lower group.
如果你说的是一套五百万美元的房子，或者三百万美元的房子，嗯，那看起来仍然是一个非常、呃、波动很大的市场——这个市场里现在依然没有很多交易活动。
If you've got a $5 million house or $3 million house, uh, that still looks like a very, uh, erratic— it's a market in which there still isn't a lot of activity.
但是在较低价位这一端，嗯，现在市场活动已经很多了。
But in the lower levels, uh, there's plenty of activity now.
房子在成交。
Houses are moving.
当然，利率下降了，所以还款就容易得多。
Interest rates, of course, are down, so it's much easier to make the payments.
现在 California 每天新增记账的 mortgage，质量都比你知道的几年前那种贷款组合要好得多。
The mortgages being put on the books every day in California are much better than, you know, the mix that you had a few years earlier.
所以情况是在改善的。
So it's improving.
至于下个月会怎么样，或者三个月以后会怎么样，呃，我不知道。
And, uh, I don't know what it'll do next month or 3 months from now.
房地产市场的情况大体上就是这样。
The housing situation is pretty much this way.
你也可以这么看。
You can look at it this way.
我们每年大概会形成一百三十万个家庭。
We create about 1,300,000 or so households a year.
这个数字会有一些波动。
It bounces around some.
不过，而且在经济衰退的时候，这个数往往会更少一些，因为，呃，人们会在某种程度上推迟结婚之类的事情。
But, and it, it tends to, in a recession, it tends to be fewer because, uh, people postpone, uh, matrimony and so on to some extent.
嗯，但如果一年形成一百三十万个家庭，而你每年新开工两百万套住房，那你就一定会遇到麻烦。
Um, but if there's 1,300,000 households created in a year and you create 2 million housing starts annually, you are going to run into trouble.
而这正是我们之前发生的情况。
And that's what we did.
我们当时盖出来的房子，就是比需求更多。
We just created more houses than the demand was.
本来的基础需求，本来是能消化掉一部分的。
The fundamental demand was going to absorb.
所以我们就造成了住房过剩。
So we created an excess of houses.
那现在到底过剩了多少呢？
How much excess is there now?
可能是一百五十万套。
Perhaps 1.5 million units.
我们当时一年在建两百万套。
We were building 2 million units a year.
现在已经降到一年五十万套了。
That's down to 500,000 units a year.
现在，如果你一年只新增五十万套住房，而新增一百三十万个家庭，那过剩的供应就会被消化掉。
Now, if you create 500,000 units a year and you have 1.3 million households created, you are going to absorb the excess supply.
不过，全国各地的情况会很不一样。
It will be very uneven around the country.
South Florida 会艰难很长很长一段时间。
South Florida is gonna be tough for a long, long time.
所以这不像是你能把房子从一个地方搬到另一个地方。
So it isn't like you can move a house from one place to another.
如果一个地方有需求，另一个地方没有的话。
If there's demand in one place and not another.
但现在我们确实在消化这些过剩库存，而且大概是以每年七十万到八十万套的速度在消化。
But we are eating up an excess inventory now, and we're probably eating it up at the rate of 700,000 or 800,000 units a year.
如果过剩是一百五十万套，那就需要几年时间。
And if we have 1.5 million excess, that takes a couple of years.
呃，这一点是躲不过去的。
Uh, there's no getting away from it.
你有三个选择。
You have 3 choices.
你可以把一百五十万套房子炸掉，你知道，嗯，如果他们真这么干，我希望炸的是你的，不是我的，不过办法也就这些。
You could blow up 1.5 million houses, you know, and, um, if they do that, I hope they blow up yours and not mine, but that's it.
呃，我们可以把这些过剩消除掉。
Uh, we can get rid of it.
我们可以，我们可以试着创造更多家庭。
We could, we could try to create more households.
我们可以让十四岁的孩子就开始结婚生孩子。
We could have 14-year-olds start getting married and having kids.
然后，呃，或者我们可以让产出低于自然需求的增长。
And, uh, or we can produce less than, than the natural demand increase.
而这就是我们现在正在做的。
And that's what we're doing now.
这样我们就会把库存消化掉。
And we're going to eat up the inventory.
这件事你不可能一天做完，也不可能一周做完，但是你——但是它最终会完成。
And you can't do it in a day, and you can't do it in a week, but you— but it will get done.
等这件事完成以后，价格就会稳定下来。
And when it gets done, then you'll have a stabilization, uh, in prices.
然后你就会看到对新开工住房的需求重新出现。
And then you will create the demand for more housing starts.
我的意思是，到那时候，你就可以回升到一百二十五万套。
I mean, then you can go back up to 1.25 million.
到那时候，我们的 insulation 业务、我们的 carpet 业务，还有我们的 brick 业务，都会变得更好。
And then our insulation business, and our carpet business, and our brick business will all get better.
具体什么时候会发生，没人知道。
Exactly when that happens, nobody knows.
但这一定会发生。
But it will happen.
Charlie？
Charlie?