M20:31
嗯,我的股票会在我去世后大概十二年的时间里卖出。
Well, my stock would be sold over about a 12-year period after my death.
在处理遗产结算期间,股票会像现在这样被处置,然后才会进入一个按时间表执行的阶段。
During the time of settling the estate, it's disposed of in the same manner as presently, and then it gets on a time clock.
所以这个过程会花很长时间。
So that takes a lot of time.
我也许还会比现在活得更久一点,不过就算这件事从现在开始,你面对的——我希望——也不会是一家市值比我们现在大得多得多的公司。
I may live a little longer even than now, but even if that started now, you wouldn't be dealing, I hope, with a company that had a market value much larger than even we presently have.
呃,而且到时候,机构投资者或者一些个人手里仍然会持有大块股票,他们的理念肯定也会比较相近。
Uh, and you'd still have large blocks of stock held by institutions or people that certainly had a similar philosophy.
如果有人真想发起一笔六千亿到七千亿美元的收购——而且再往后看,这个数字可能还会大得多——并不能保证这事绝对做不成。
There's no guarantee that if somebody wanted to try a $600 or $700 billion takeover—and it might be, you know, a lot larger than that if you go out a ways—that it can't be done.
不过我觉得,真要说发生这种事,Berkshire 的可能性大概已经是我能想到的全世界所有公司里最低的之一了。
But I think it would be about as unlikely to happen in the case of Berkshire as any company I can think of in the, in the world.
实际上,这件事在我去世后一段时间之前,根本不可能发生。
It can't happen at all, in effect, until sometime after I die.
在那段时期之前,会有很多投票权集中在一起。
There'll be a lot of votes concentrated till that period.
而且,呃,就像 Charlie 说的,我已经讲过——在我去世之后、那个十年的分配期正式开始之前,中间还有一段时间。
And, uh, like Charlie says, I've, I've told—there's this period after I die before this 10-year distribution period kicks in.
所以我已经告诉我的律师,要确保我的遗产能持续相当长一段时间。
So I've told my lawyer to make sure that my estate lasts for quite a while.
他说,你跟律师这么讲,就像是跟你十几岁的儿子说要保持正常的性生活一样。
And he says that's like telling your teenage son to have a normal sex life, uh, when you tell a lawyer that.
不过,呃,这会是很长一段时间。
But the, uh, it'll be a long time.
而且就像我说的,如果我们还能做到还算不错的复利增长率,那你说的就真的是美国规模最大的公司之一了。
And like I say, if, if we do anything in the way of decent rates of compounding, you're really talking, you know, one of the very largest companies in the United States.
我不觉得会有人——我不觉得会有人对 General Electric 或者 Exxon 发起 LBO。
And I don't think anybody's gonna—I don't think there's gonna be an LBO of General Electric or Exxon.
而且我觉得,对 Berkshire 来说,难度也同样大。
And, and I think that it would be equally difficult with Berkshire.
不过,当然,没有百分之百的保证。
There's no 100% guarantee, however.
Charlie?
Charlie?