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一个让巴菲特芒格看法完全不同的问题

48 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 5:07
F1
F10:00

Charlie 在那个回答里说,他觉得 Berkshire 旗下这些业务整体来看,表现会比 S&P 500 更好。

Charlie, in that response, said that he thinks that Berkshire's businesses on the whole will do better than the S&P 500.

来自 Alabama 州 Birmingham 的 Clark Cameron,持有二百八十一股 Berkshire B,他来信问,为什么你建议你太太在你去世之后把钱投到 index funds,而不是 Berkshire Hathaway?

Clark Cameron from Birmingham, Alabama, who owns 281 shares of Berkshire B, writes in and asks, why have you advised your wife to invest in index funds after your death rather than Berkshire Hathaway?

我相信 Munger 也劝过他的孩子们,原话大概是,别傻到把它卖掉。

I believe Munger has counseled his offspring to, quote, not be so dumb as to sell.
M1
M10:23

对。

Yeah.

她不会卖掉任何 Berkshire。

She won't be selling any Berkshire.

卖 Berkshire 去买 index funds。

Berkshire to buy the index funds.

我所有的 Berkshire,每一股,都会用于 philanthropy。

All of my Berkshire, every single share will go to philanthropy.

所以我甚至都不把自己看成是在拥有 Berkshire。

So I don't even regard myself as owning Berkshire.

你知道,基本上这已经是承诺出去的了。

You know, basically it's committed.

到目前为止,大概已经分配出去了百分之四十。

And so far about 40% has already been distributed.

所以问题在于,一个不是投资专业人士的人,到遗产处理完的时候,我希望她已经是相当高龄了。

So the question is, somebody who is not an investment professional, will be, I hope, reasonably elderly by the time that the estate gets settled.

那什么才是最好的投资?也就是那种相关的各种担忧会更少,也更少会有人跑来跟她说,你为什么不把这个卖了去做点别的,诸如此类。

And what is the best investment, meaning one that there would be less worry of any kind connected with, and less people coming around and saying, why don't you sell this and do something else, and all those things?

她会拥有比自己需要的更多的钱。

She's going to have more money than she needs.

那样一来,最重要的就是别让钱变成一个问题。

And the big thing then you want is money not to be a problem.

如果她持有 S&P,那她几乎不可能没有足够的钱——除非发生了什么大规模杀伤性武器之类的事——但基本上,她几乎不可能没有足够的钱,她会拥有她这辈子根本花不完的钱。

And there will be no way that if she holds the S&P, virtually no way, absent something happened with weapons of mass destruction, but virtually no way that she won't have—she'll have all the money that she possibly can use.

她还会有一些流动现金,这样如果某个时候股市大跌,或者证券交易所暂时关闭,或者发生类似的事,她依然会觉得自己手头非常宽裕。

She'll have a little liquid money so that if stocks are down tremendously at some point, they close the stock exchange for a while, anything like that, she'll still feel that she's got plenty of money.
F1
F11:49

对。

Yeah.
M1
M11:50

目标并不是把收益最大化。

And the object is not to maximize.

她最后拿到的钱是翻一倍、翻两倍,还是别的,其实都没有区别。

It doesn't make any difference whether the amount she gets doubles or triples or anything of the sort.

重要的是,她余生再也不用为钱担心。

The important thing is that she never worries about money the rest of her life.

我在 Omaha 有一位 Katie 姑妈,Charlie 很了解她,也曾经为她丈夫工作过,我也是。

And I had an Aunt Katie here in Omaha who Charlie knew well and worked for her husband, as did I.

她一辈子都很辛苦,住在那栋房子里很多年了,我想她买那房子大概花了,不知道,八千美元,地点在 45th and Hickory。

And she worked very hard all her life and had lived in a house she paid, I think, I don't know, $8,000 for, 45th and Hickory, all her life.

后来因为她持有 Berkshire,她最后——她活到了九十七岁。

And because she was in Berkshire, she ended up—she lived to 97.

到最后她有了几亿美元。

She ended up with a few hundred million.

然后她每隔四五个月就会给我写一封信,她说,亲爱的 Warren,很抱歉打扰你,但我的钱会不会花光啊?

And she would write me a letter every 4 or 5 months, and she said, Dear Warren, I hate to bother you, but am I going to run out of money?

我会回信给她说,亲爱的 Katie,这是个好问题,因为如果你活到九百八十六岁,你的钱确实会花光。

And I would write her back and I'd say, dear Katie, it's a good question because if you live 986 years, you're going to run out of money.

然后再过四五个月,她又会给我写同样的一封信。

And then about 4 or 5 months later, she'd write me the same letter again.

我已经看明白了,只要你已经有了足够多的钱,它就绝不该变成你人生里的负担。

And I have seen there's no way in the world if you've got plenty of money, that it should become a minus in your life.

而且如果你有很多钱,就会有人跑到你身边,给你各种各样的建议,有些是出于好意,有些就没那么好意了。

And there will be people, if you've got a lot of money, that come around with various suggestions for you, sometimes well-meaning, sometimes not so well-meaning.

所以如果你手里拿的是那种确定能给你保障的东西,你知道,要是全都放在 Berkshire 里,他们就会说,哎,如果 Warren 今天还活着,他肯定会叫你这么做。

So if you've got something that's certain to deliver, you know, it was all in Berkshire, they'd say, well, if Warren was alive today, you know, he would be telling you to do this.

我就是不想让任何人经历那个。

I just don't want anybody to go through that.

而且 S&P 会是一个——我觉得其实我建议的这个做法,就是非常高比例的人都应该做的,差不多就是这样。

And the S&P will be a— I think actually what I'm suggesting is what a very high percentage of people should do, something like that.

我也觉得,如果他们只持有一只股票,而身边又有邻居、朋友、亲戚试图劝他们——就像我说的,有时候是出于好意,有时候就不是——那他们心里可能就不会那么踏实。

And I don't think they will have as— I think there's a chance they won't have as much peace of mind if they own one stock and they've got neighbors and friends and relatives that are trying to induce them, like I say, sometimes well-intentioned, sometimes otherwise.

去做别的事情。

To do something else.

所以我觉得,这是个能带来好结果、而且大概率能坚持下去的策略。

And so I think it's a policy that'll get a good result and is likely to stick.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M2
M24:09

嗯,就像 Becky 说的,奇迹是不一样的。

Well, as Becky said, the wonders are different.

我想持有 Berkshire。

I want to hold the Berkshire.
M1
M14:18

嗯,我也想持有 Berkshire。

Well, I want to hold the Berkshire too.
M2
M24:20

不,我敢打赌。

No, I bet.

我的意思是,我不是不喜欢——我承认那个 S&P 的 algorithm 背后的逻辑,在一个由大型公司组成的分散投资组合里,是很难被打败的。

I mean, I don't like the— I recognize the logic of the fact that that S&P algorithm is very hard to beat in a diversified portfolio of big companies.

对大多数人来说,这几乎是不可能做到的。

It's all but impossible for most people.

但是你知道,我还是对 Berkshire 更放心一些。

But, you know, it's— I'm just more comfortable with the Berkshire.
M1
M14:42

嗯,毕竟那是家族生意。

Well, it's the family business.
M2
M24:43

对,对,对。

Yeah, yeah, yeah.
M1
M14:44

但是,不过,嗯,我就是——我见过太多人上了年纪以后,特别容易受影响,还得去听那些不断找上门来的人的各种说法。

But, but it, uh, I've just— I've seen too many people as they get older, particularly being susceptible, and just having to listen to the arguments of people coming along.
M2
M24:57

嗯,如果你是想保护你的 heirs,不让他们受别人愚蠢行为的影响,那你也许会有一套不错的办法,但我对这个话题没那么大兴趣。

Well, if you're going to protect your heirs from the stupidity of others, you may have some good system, but I'm not much interested in that subject.

好吧。

Okay.