M10:00
我的第二个问题是，就你们两位的经验来看，你或者 Munger 先生有没有见过哪家公司在竞争优势失去之后，又重新找回来，或者建立起新的竞争优势？
My second question is, in both your experience, have you or Mr. Munger ever known of a company that has regained or replaced its competitive advantage once it was lost?
说到竞争优势这件事，先失去、然后又重新夺回来的例子，呃，真不多。
In terms of competitive advantage and then regain—lost and then regained, uh, there aren't many examples of that.
在 property-casualty 保险行业里，我有个朋友老想买那些很烂的公司，觉得自己能把它们变成很棒的公司。
In the property-casualty company, I've got a friend who always wants to buy lousy companies with the idea he's going to change them into wonderful companies.
我就问他，你说，过去一百年里，他到底在哪儿见过这种事真的发生过？
And I just ask him, you know, where in the last 100 years has he seen it happen?
我的意思是，GEICO 在七十年代初确实遇到过麻烦，但它的商业模式本来是非常棒的。
I mean, GEICO got into trouble in the early '70s, but it had a wonderful business model.
它确实一度偏离了轨道，但不是因为这个模式本身出了问题。
It did get off the tracks, but it wasn't because the model went astray.
而是因为他们，他们准备金提得不对，增长又搞得太疯了，再加上类似的一些问题。
It's because they, they started reserving incorrectly and went crazy on growth and a few things like that.
但它底层的基本模式其实还在那里。
But the basic model was still underlying it.
你也许可以说，有一家公司失去了竞争地位，后来又以另一种方式回来了，那其实就是 Pepsi-Cola。
You might argue that one company that lost its competitive position and then came back in a different way actually was Pepsi-Cola.
我是说，他们当年还有个口号，五分钱能买到双倍的量。
I mean, they were twice as much for a nickel, too.
他们当时卖点是数量，也就是说，五分钱你能咕咚咕咚多喝一倍，正如那个口号说的，双倍的量；后来他们失去了这个优势。
They were selling on a quantitative basis the fact that you got to guzzle more of the stuff for a nickel, twice as much, as the slogan went, and they lost that edge.
二战之后成本涨了很多，所以他们基本上是成功地改变了营销方式。这种事非常非常少见，但这一点确实得给他们记一功。
Post-World War II when costs went up a lot, and so they basically changed their marketing approach successfully, and that's very, very seldom done, but you have to give them credit for that.
某种程度上，Gillette 在三十年代也有点失去过竞争地位，市场份额被他们所谓的 penny blades 之类的产品抢走了一些；但接下来的大概十年里，他们又非常强势地夺了回来，市场份额大幅上升。
To some extent, Gillette lost its competitive position somewhat in the '30s, lost market share against what they called penny blades and all that, and then regained it in a very big way in the next 10 or so years when their market share went up enormously.
但一般来说，如果你失去了竞争地位——Packard Motor Company 在三十年代中期的时候，做的是最顶级的汽车。
But generally speaking, if you lose your competitive position—the Packard Motor Company had the premier car in the mid-'30s.
Cadillac 还不是最顶级的。
The Cadillac was not the premier.
当时是 Packard。
It was the Packard.
后来有一年他们开始走低端路线，从那以后就再也没回来。
And then they went downscale one year, and they never came back.
那一年他们的销量确实一下子冲上去了，因为人人都想拥有一辆 Packard，而现在你可以用便宜一点的价格买到一辆。
They jumped their sales that one year because everybody wanted to own a Packard, and now you could own one a little cheaper.
对。
Right.
但他们再也没能找回那种高端形象。
But they never regained that upscale image again.
有些百货公司也干过这种事。
And certain department stores have done that too.
它们原本有高端形象，而你总是可以通过搞这个促销、那个打折，再往下沉一点市场，来把销量拱上去，特别是当你本来就有很强的高端形象的时候。
They've had an upscale image, and you can always juice up your sales, particularly if you've got a great upscale image, by having, you know, this sale or that sale and going downmarket.
但要再回到高端市场，就非常难了。
It's very hard to go back upmarket again.
你也见过一些很优秀的百货公司，或者一些专卖店，碰到过这个问题。
And you've seen some great department stores that have had that, or specialty stores that have had that problem.
Charlie，你对这个有什么看法吗？
Charlie, you got any thoughts on that?
没有更多了。
No more.
好。
Okay.
第三个问题。
Number 3.