2015年股东大会 · 芒格有没有阻止巴菲特投资IBM？ — 文稿

F10:00

这个问题是问 Charlie 的。

This question is for Charlie.

这个问题来自 John Baylor。

It comes from John Baylor.

他说，Charlie，是你让 Warren 改掉了捡烟蒂式投资的习惯。

He says, Charlie, you broke Warren of his cigar butt buying habits.

随着科技领域正在发生这么多重大的创新，IBM 会不会像六十年代那些纺织厂一样？

With the significant innovation that is occurring in technology, is IBM similar to those textile mills in the 1960s?

还有，你当时有没有试着劝 Warren 别买 IBM？

And did you try to talk Warren out of buying IBM?

M10:18

答案是，没有。

The answer is no.

我觉得 IBM 是一家非常有意思的公司。

I think IBM is a very interesting company.

你知道，它当年在 Hollerith machines，也就是打孔卡计算设备这个领域，几乎是完全占据主导地位。

It totally dominated Hollerith machines, you know, the punch card computing.

后来电子计算被发明出来之后，它也在那个领域主导过一段时间。

And then when they invented electronic computing, it dominated that for a while.

技术变革来了之后，企业还能像 IBM 当年那样成功适应的，这种情况是非常少见的。

It's very rare that when a technological change comes along that people adapt as successfully as IBM did that time.

嗯，现在又经历了 personal computer 这波变化，而这方面的结果算是有好有坏。

Well, now they've had the personal computer, and that's been a mixed bag.

不过我觉得 IBM 还是一家非常靠谱的公司，而且我们持有的很多公司，也都经历过暂时性的挫折，或者说，它们在某些方面曾经比现在更强大。

But I think IBM is a very credible company, and we own a lot of companies that have temporary reverses, or once were mightier in some ways than they are now.

IBM 现在仍然是一家规模巨大的企业，我认为它依然是一家非常令人钦佩的企业，而且我觉得我们买入它的价格也是合理的。

IBM is still an enormous enterprise, and I think it's still a very admirable enterprise, and I think we bought it at a reasonable price.

我们买它的时候，投票结果是二比零。

When we bought it, it was a two-to-nothing vote.

M21:25

好。

Okay.

顺便说一句，有件事我一直觉得很有意思。

Incidentally, there's one thing I always find interesting.

别人会问我们那些我们持有的投资，然后大家好像觉得我们会想替它们吹捧一番，或者——其实我们一点都没有兴趣去鼓励别人买我们持有的那些投资。

We get asked questions about investments we own, and people think we want to talk them up, you know, or—we have no interest in encouraging other people to buy the investments we own.

我的意思是，对我们来说，更好的情况其实是，未来不管是我们自己还是那家公司，都很可能还会继续买股票。

I mean, we are better off because either we or the company is likely to be buying stock in the future.

如果我们明年、后年、再后年都还要继续买，那我们为什么会希望股价上涨呢？

Why would we want the stock to go up if we're going to be a buyer next year and the year after and the year after that?

但是 Wall Street 整套思维方式就是这样：你买了某样东西之后，就算你以后还会继续买，或者那家公司还会回购自己的股票，大家似乎还是觉得，如果它第二天、下一周或者下个月就涨了，你就更占便宜。

But the whole mentality of Wall Street is that if you buy something, even if you're going to buy more of it later on, or if the company's going to buy its own stock, then people seem to think that they're better off if it goes up the next day or the next week or the next month.

所以他们才会说什么 talking your book。

And that's why they talk about talking your book.

如果我们真要 talking our book，从我们的立场出发，我们反而应该对我们持有的四大重仓股都说得悲观一点，因为这四家公司都在回购自己的股票。

If we talked our book, from our standpoint, we would say pessimistic things about all four of the biggest holdings we have because all four of them are repurchasing their shares.

很显然，它们回购股票的价格越便宜，我们就越有利。

And obviously, the cheaper they repurchase their shares, the better off we are.

但大家好像就是没明白这一点。

But people don't seem to get that point.

Charlie，你知道这是为什么吗？

Do you have any idea why, Charlie?

M12:34

Warren，要是人们不是这么经常犯错，我们也不会这么有钱。

Warren, if people weren't so often wrong, we wouldn't be so rich.

M22:47

他终于给我解释明白了。

He's finally explained it to me.

好。

Okay.

Gary？

Gary?