F10:59
对，Ben Graham 很早以前就说过，你对不对，不是因为别人同意你或者不同意你。
Yeah, well, Ben Graham said long ago that you're neither right nor wrong because people agree with you or disagree with you.
换句话说，逆向而行这件事，本身并不比追随趋势更高明、有什么特别的价值。
In other words, being, being contrarian has no special virtue over being a trend follower.
你之所以是对的，是因为你的事实是对的，你的推理也是对的。
You're right because your facts and reasoning are right.
所以你要做的，就是尽量确保你掌握的事实是正确的，而这一点在这个国家通常还是挺容易做到的。
So all you do is you try to make sure that the facts you have are correct, and that's usually pretty easy to do in this country.
我的意思是，各种事情的信息其实都能找到。
I mean, the information is available on all kinds of things.
有了 Internet，就更容易了。
Internet makes it even easier.
然后，当你掌握了这些事实之后，你还得把它们的含义想明白。
And then once you have the facts, you got to think through what they mean.
你不是去做什么公众意见调查。
And you don't take a public opinion survey.
你也不要去关注那些不重要的东西。
You don't pay attention to things that are unimportant.
我的意思是，你要找的是那种重要，而且是可以了解清楚的事情。
I mean, what you're looking for is something—things that are important and knowable.
如果一件事很重要，但根本没法知道，那就别去想了。
If something's important but unknowable, forget it.
比如说，知道明天会不会有人投下核武器，当然可能很重要，但这是没法知道的。
I mean, it may be important, you know, to know whether somebody's going to drop a nuclear weapon tomorrow, but it's unknowable.
还有很多事情也是这样，可能都很重要。
It may be important—all kinds of things.
但同时，也有很多事情是你能知道的，可它们并不重要。
But so you—and, and there are all kinds of things that are knowable but are not important.
在专注于商业和投资决策的时候，你要尽量把范围缩小到那些既重要、又可以知道的事情上，然后再判断，你手里的信息结合价格等等因素，是不是有足够的价值，足以让你采取行动。
In focusing on business and investment decisions, you try to think of—you narrow it down to the things that are knowable and important, and then you decide whether you have information of sufficient value that, you know, compared to price and all that, that will cause you to act.
别人都在做什么，根本没有意义。
What others are doing means nothing.
就像 Graham 在《The Intelligent Investor》第八章里写的，市场是为你服务的，不是来指导你的。
It's like what Graham writes in chapter 8 of The Intelligent Investor, that the market is there to serve you and not to instruct you.
这一点非常非常重要。
That's of enormous importance.
当人们谈论股票动量、看图表，或者任何类似这些东西的时候，他们其实是在说，市场在指导你。
When people talk about momentum in stocks or charting or any kind of things like that, they're saying that the market is instructing you.
市场不会指导我们。
The market doesn't instruct us.
市场是为我们服务的。
The market is there to serve us.
如果它做了什么蠢事，我们就因为它在犯傻而得到一个做点什么的机会；如果值得做，我们就去做。
If it does something silly, we get a chance to do something because it's doing something silly, we do it.
但它不会告诉我们任何东西。
But it doesn't tell us anything.
它只是告诉我们价格。
It just tells us prices.
如果价格跟事实和你的推理得出的结论不一致，那你——那就该采取行动了。
And if the price is out of line with where the facts and reasoning lead you, then you— then action is called for.
如果不是这样，你就别管它了，你知道，那天去打打桥牌，第二天再看看有没有什么新情况。
And if it doesn't, you forget it and, you know, go play bridge that day, and the next day see whether there's something new.
而这件事好的地方就在于，永远都会有新的机会。
And the nice thing about it is there always is something new.
我刚才提到过 LTCM 危机。
I mentioned the LTCM crisis.
你知道，那个周日我们接到了很多电话，都是一些投资组合出了问题的人打来的。
You know, we got a lot of calls on Sunday from people that had portfolios that were in trouble.
我跟你们说，如果你能在周日赚很多钱，这种机会可能不常有，但凡是你在周日接到的电话，你大概率都能从中赚钱。
Now, I will tell you that if you can make a lot of money on Sunday, you may not get a chance very often, but any calls you get on Sunday, you're probably going to make money on.
如果你在周日接到电话，那事情就真的是，真的是乱套了。你唯一要做的，就是确保周日你是接电话的那个人，而不是打电话的那个人。
Things are, things are really screwed up if you're getting calls on Sunday, and all you have to do, just make sure that you're the callee and not the caller on Sunday.
而且——不过如果你接到这种电话，周日有人打给你，说 off-the-run 的交易利差比 on-the-run 偏了三十个基点，那你要做的，无非就是判断——你要怎么处理这条具体信息，先看它本身是不是对的；然后再看你要怎么处理这条信息，看你能不能把这手牌打完。
And, and, but if you get those calls, you get a call on a Sunday and somebody says that the off-the-run is trading 30 basis points away from the on-the-run, you know, all you have to do is decide whether— how you handle that particular piece of information, whether it's correct in the first place, but how you handle that piece of information, whether you can play out your hand.
显然，你绝不能让自己处在那种由别人来摆布你的境地。
You never get in a position, obviously, where the other fellow can call your tune.
无论在什么情况下，你都必须能够把你手里的牌打到底。
You have to be able to play out your hand under all circumstances.
但如果你能把这手牌打到底，而且你掌握的是正确的事实，你独立思考，并且让市场为你服务，而不是来指挥你，那你就不会失手。
But if you can play out your hand and you've got the right facts and you reason by yourself and you let the market serve you and not instruct you, you can't miss.
Charlie？
Charlie?
嗯，我得说，你们当中有些人大概还是会失手的。
Well, I would say some of you probably can miss.
不过我得说，Charlie 不会失手，我就这么说吧。
I would say Charlie can't miss, I'll put it that way.
他会同意这一点的。
He'll agree with that.
关于这个——你还有什么要补充的吗？
You have anything further to add on some—.