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为什么伯克希尔不希望苹果股价快速上涨

30 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 3:08
M1
M10:00

关于科技,还有这家公司现在已经成了我们最大的持仓,我想提个问题。

Question on technology and the company's biggest holding now.

既然 Apple 现在已经是我们最大的持仓了,能不能多讲讲你的想法?

Given that Apple is now our largest holding, tell us more about your thinking.

你怎么看这家公司面临的监管挑战?

What do you think about the regulatory challenges the company faces?

比如说,Spotify 就以反垄断为由在欧洲对 Apple 提出了投诉。

For example, Spotify has filed a complaint against Apple in Europe on antitrust grounds.

Elizabeth Warren 也提议结束 Apple 对 App Store 的控制,这会影响到这家公司通过扩大 services 业务来提升增长的策略。

Elizabeth Warren has proposed ending Apple's control over the App Store, which would impact the company's strategy to increase its services businesses.

这些批评公平吗?

Are these criticisms fair?

对。

Yeah.
M2
M20:28

这个嘛,还是那句话,我们并不——我可以告诉你,你提到的这些点我都知道,而且我非常喜欢我们持有的 Apple。

Well, again, we're not— I will tell you that all of the points you've made, I'm aware of, and I like our Apple holdings very much.

我是说,它就是我们最大的持仓。

I mean, it is our largest holding.

其实,对 Apple 来说真正让我们吃亏的是,股价涨上去了。我们其实更希望这只股票——我不是说要去做什么——但我们其实更希望它的股价低一点,这样我们就能买更多股票。

And actually, what hurts in the case of Apple is that the stock has gone up, and we'd much rather have the stock— and I'm not proposing anything be done about it— but we'd much rather have the stock at a lower price so we could buy more stock.

还有很重要的一点,如果 Apple——我记得他们前两天又授权了七百五十亿美元,不过假设他们未来三年要花一千亿美元来回购自己的股票。

And importantly, if Apple— I think they authorized another $75 billion the other day, but let's say they're going to spend $100 billion in buying in their stock in the next 3 years.

你看,这个道理很简单。

You know, it's very simple.

如果他们按每股两百美元回购,那他们就能买回五亿股。

If they buy it at $200, they're going to get 500 million shares.

他们现在外面流通的大概是四十六亿股,所以那种情况下最后就会变成四十一亿股。

They've got 4 billion 600 million out now, and so they'll end up with 4.1 billion under that circumstance.

如果他们是按每股一百五十美元回购,那就能买回六亿六千七百万股。

If they're buying it at $150, they buy in 667 million shares.

那样一来,跟第一种情况相比,我们持有的比例就会更高——因为分母会低于四十亿股,我们拥有的公司比例也就更大。

And instead of owning what we would own in the first case, we'd now— the divisor would be less than 4 billion, and we'd own a greater percentage of it.

所以实际上,很大一部分盈利,至少有这个可能——至少已经获得授权了——会被用来在我们一分钱都不用掏的情况下提高我们的持股比例,这点我非常喜欢。

So, in effect, a major portion of earnings, at least possibly, has been— it's at least been authorized— will be spent in terms of increasing our ownership without us paying out a dime, which I love.

我们持有的是一家企业,一家很棒的企业,而最近股价大幅上涨这个变化,长期来看其实对 Berkshire 是不利的。

We're a business, a wonderful business, and the recent development when the stock has moved up substantially actually hurts Berkshire over time.

不过我认为我们还是会做得不错,但我们不打算——我们不会去拆解我们对 Apple 的具体预期。

We still do, in my opinion, we'll do fine, but we're not going to get into— we're not going to dissect our expectations about Apple.

你知道的,免得有人明天跟我们对着买,或者怎么样。

You know, for people who may be buying it against us tomorrow or something.

所以这种投资建议,我们可不会白白送出去。

So we don't give away investment advice on that for nothing.

不过你提到的这些事情,我们当然都知道。

But we have all the things you've mentioned, obviously, we know about.

我们还知道一些——我们还会把一大堆其他变量也一起纳入考量,而且我们很满意它是我们最大的持仓。

We know some— we've got a whole bunch of other variables that we crank into it, and we like the fact that it's our largest holding.

Charlie?

Charlie?

嗯,在我家里,用 Apple 手机的人,最后才会放弃的就是它。

Well, in my family, the people who have Apple phones, it's the last thing they'll give up.

这可不是个差东西。

Not a bad item to have.

还有一样我们也不会放弃的,就是午饭。

And the other thing we won't give up is lunch.

那我们现在就先休会,差不多一点钟再继续。

And we'll, uh, we'll now adjourn and we'll, uh, reconvene at, uh, 1 o'clock or thereabouts.

咱们过一会儿见。

I'll see you a little later.

谢谢。

Thank you.