M10:27
对，我们经营 Berkshire 到现在已经四十七年了。
Yeah, we've run Berkshire now for 47 years.
这中间有过几次——大概四五次——我们觉得它明显被低估了。
There have been several times, oh, 4 or 5 times when we thought it was significantly undervalued.
我们至少有四次看到它的股价在相当短的时间里跌掉一半，或者差不多跌掉一半。
We saw the price get cut in half at least 4 times, or roughly in half, in fairly short periods of time.
我想这么说吧，如果你长期经营任何一家企业，总会有些时候它被高估，也总会有些时候它被低估。
And I would say this, if you run any business for a long period of time, there are going to be times when it's overvalued and sometimes when it's undervalued.
Tom Murphy 经营过世界上最成功的公司之一，而在七十年代初，他那家公司的股票交易价格，大概只有那些资产如果拿去卖掉时价值的三分之一。
Tom Murphy ran one of the most successful companies the world's ever seen, and in the early 1970s, his stock was selling for about a third of what you could have sold the properties for.
还有，你知道，Berkshire 在二零零零年、二零零一年那会儿——就是我在年报里写到我们也要回购股票的时候——它的股价在我看来低得很离谱，但我们一股都没回购到。
And, you know, Berkshire back in 2000, 2001, whenever it was that I wrote in the annual report that we were also going to repurchase shares, was selling at what I thought was a very low price, and we didn't get any repurchased.
不过，股票的美妙之处就在于，它们时不时就会出现非常荒唐的价格。
But that stocks— the beauty of stocks is they do sell at silly prices from time to time.
我是说，这——这就是 Charlie 和我发财的方式。
I mean, that's, that's how Charlie and I have gotten rich.
你知道，Ben Graham 在《The Intelligent Investor》第八章里写过这个。
You know, Ben Graham writes about it in chapter 8 of The Intelligent Investor.
你知道，接下来——嗯，其实第八章和第二十章，基本上就是你在这个世界上致富所需要的全部内容了。
You know, next— well, chapter 8 and chapter 20 are really all you need to do to get rich in this world.
第八章说的是，在市场里，你会有一个合伙人，叫 Mr. Market。
And chapter 8 says that in the market, you're going to have a partner named Mr. Market.
而他作为你合伙人的妙处在于，他有点像个精神不太正常的酒鬼。
And the beauty of him as your partner is that he's kind of a psychotic drunk.
而且随着时间过去，他会做出各种非常古怪的事情。
And he will do very weird things over time.
而你的任务就是记住，他的存在是为你服务的，不是来给你建议的。
And your job is to remember that he's there to serve you and not to advise you.
如果你能一直保持这种心态——Mr. Market 每天会给你报出成千上万个价格，几乎涵盖世界上每一家大企业——你要明白，他经常会犯很多错，而且犯错的理由还五花八门、莫名其妙。
And if you can keep that mental state, that all those thousands of prices that Mr. Market is offering you every day on every major business in the world, practically, that he is making lots of mistakes, and he makes them for all kinds of weird reasons.
而你要做的，只是在偶尔某一天，他提出愿意按同一个价格跟你买或者卖的时候，顺着他来就行了。
And all you have to do is occasionally oblige him when he offers to either buy or sell from you at the same price on any given day.
任何一只证券都是这样。
Any given security.
所以，这个体系本身就决定了股票会被错误定价，Berkshire 当然也不例外。
So it's built into the system that stocks get mispriced, and Berkshire has been no exception to that.
我觉得总体来说，在大约四十七年的时间里，Berkshire 的交易价格相对其内在价值，已经算是比大多数大型公司更接近了。
I think Berkshire, generally speaking, has come closer to selling around its intrinsic value over a 47-year period or so than most large companies.
如果你看看我们某一年里最高价和最低价之间的区间，再把它跟另外一百只股票同样的高低区间做比较，我想你会发现，我们的股价波动比大多数股票还是要小一些，这其实是个好迹象。
If you look at the range from our high to low in a given year, and compare that to the range high and low on 100 other stocks, I think you'll find that our stock fluctuates somewhat less than most, which is a good sign.
不过，呃，我可以告诉你，在未来二十年里，Berkshire 终有一天会被明显高估，也终会在某个时候被明显低估。
But, uh, I, I will tell you, in the next 20 years, Berkshire will someday be significantly overvalued and some— at some point significantly undervalued.
而且，Coca-Cola、Wells Fargo、IBM，还有其他所有证券，也都会是这样；我只是不知道具体会按什么顺序、在什么时间发生。
And, uh, that will be true for Coca-Cola and Wells Fargo and IBM and all of the other securities that I, I don't— I just don't know in which order and at which times.
但最重要的是，你——你——你要根据你认为这家企业值多少钱来做决定。
But the important thing is that you, you, you make your decisions based on what you think the business is worth.
如果你是根据自己对一家企业价值的判断来做买卖决策，而且你坚持待在那些你有充分理由相信自己能估值的企业里，那你在股票上就一定会做得不错。
And if you make your buy and sell decisions based on what you think a business is worth, and you stick with businesses that you think you've got good reason to think you can value, you simply have to do well in stocks.
股票市场是全世界最好说话、最容易赚钱的地方，因为你其实什么都不用做。
The stock market is the most obliging, money-making, uh, place in the world because you don't have to do anything.
你知道，你就坐在那里，成千上万家企业同时都在报出买卖双方都能成交的同一个价格，而且价格天天在变；你对其中大多数企业又都有很多信息可看，而你根本不需要非得做点什么。
You know, you sit there with thousands of businesses being priced at the same price for the buyer and the seller, and you don't— and it changes every day, and you've got lots of information about most of those businesses, and you don't have to do anything.
把这跟你手头任何其他投资选择比一比就知道了。
Compare that to any other investment alternative you've got.
我的意思是，农场你没法这么搞。
I mean, you can't do that with farms.
如果你有一个农场，你旁边那个人也有个农场，而你有点想把他的买下来之类的，他可不会每天都给你报个价，说愿意按这个价买你的农场，或者按那个价把他的农场卖给你。
If you own a farm and the guy has the farm next to you and you kind of like to buy him out or something, he's not going to name a price every day at which he'll buy your farm or sell you his farm.
但股票就可以，你知道，像 Berkshire Hathaway 或者 IBM，就可以这样。
But you can do that with, you know, you can do it with Berkshire Hathaway or IBM.
这真是个特别棒的游戏。
It's a marvelous game.
只要你别把这些规则整个颠倒过来，别自己开始表现得像那个喝醉了的疯子，而是做那个在旁边利用他的人，这套规则就是明显对你有利的。
The rules are stacked in your favor if you don't turn those rules upside down and start behaving like the drunken psychotic instead of the guy that's there to take advantage of him.