1998年股东大会 · Bill Ackman追问巴菲特关于麦当劳生意模式的问题 — 文稿

M10:01

你在描述 McDonald's 的时候，我的意思是，你给人的感觉是，McDonald's 里面藏着一个很棒的生意，然后还掺着另外两个还不错的生意。

In your description of McDonald's, I mean, you have the sense that there's a great business buried in McDonald's and then 2 good businesses that are mixed in with it.

问题在于，房地产和运营这两块业务，按公司现在这种资本结构，它们没法像加盟业务那样赚到同样水平的回报。

And the problem is with the, the real estate and the operational business, that as the company is currently capitalized, they can't earn the same kind of returns they can earn in the franchising business.

你以前，或者现在，仍然是 McDonald's 的一个重要股东。

You were, or still are, a significant shareholder of McDonald's.

我想我的问题是，解决办法看起来很明显。

I guess my question is, the solution is obvious.

你为什么不推动一个解决方案，去创造一个像你在 International Dairy Queen 那样的机会呢？

Why don't you push for a solution that creates the same opportunity you have at International Dairy Queen?

M20:34

嗯，我猜——我不了解这里面的细节，但我的猜测是，面对全球两万三千个门店网点，

Well, my guess is— I don't know the details on it, but my guess is that with 23,000 locations all over the world, I think it would be extraordinarily difficult to separate the real estate business out.

现在这个时候，要把房地产业务从加盟业务里拆分出来，我觉得会特别困难。

From the franchising business at this point.

我觉得他们本来是可以走另一条路的。

I think they could have gone a different route.

我不是说那就一定会是一条更好的路。

I'm not saying it would have been a better route at all.

事实上，我认为，大概率他们在持有和控制这么多房地产这件事上，是走对了路。

In fact, I think the odds are they followed the right route in owning and controlling so much real estate.

但我觉得——我就是觉得，这里面的问题会非常棘手。

But I think— I just think the problems would be horrendous.

当然，你不会想把这些资产卖掉再租回来，因为在我看来，那样做最终并不会带来更高的价值。

Certainly, you wouldn't want to sell it and lease it back because you would not end up with more value, in my view, by doing that.

至于把它分拆成一个房地产信托之类的东西，同时还要在一百多个国家运营，还牵涉到所有这些加盟安排，我觉得那会是一个非常非常大的问题。

And spinning it off in a real estate trust or something with operating in 100-plus countries and with all of the franchise arrangements, I think it would be a huge, huge problem.

反正我自己是不想去碰这个事。

I would not want to tackle it myself.

所以我认为，你应该把 McDonald's 看成一家非常好的公司，至于房地产这块，我也不知道他们具体有什么计划，但我觉得它还是会继续保持现在这种模式，不过我认为他们已经释放过信号，就是未来在新物业上的投入会少一些。

So I think that you should look at McDonald's, and I don't know anything about their plans on this, but I think you should look at McDonald's as being a very good business, but the one that will continue in its present mode vis-à-vis the real estate, although I think they've signaled that they're going to do less on new properties.

在持有产权这方面，可能会比他们到目前为止做得稍微少一点。

Somewhat less in connection with ownership than they've done to this point.

但外面已经有两万三千个门店了，而且每个经营者，他自己的那套安排对他来说都非常重要。

But there's 23,000 locations out there, and every operator, his own arrangement is very important to him.

而且，而且这会——这会是一项极其庞大的工程，而且我也不确定，到最后到底还能多创造出多少额外价值。

And, and it just— it would be, it would be a mammoth job, and I'm not sure how much extra value would be created in the end anyway.

Charlie？

Charlie?

M32:09

对，McDonald's 这些年来赚到的资本净回报率一直都很高。

Yeah, the net returns on capital McDonald's has earned all these years are high.

尽管他们持有了很多房地产，但我觉得很难去挑剔他们当初那种做法。

Even though they have owned a lot of the real estate, I think it's hard to quarrel with the way they did it.

他们的——他们的记录是最好的。

They had a— they had the best record.

M22:26

而且在我看来，它的估值倍数跟如果把房地产拆出去相比，也没有大到哪儿去。

And the multiple is not greatly different, in my view, than if the real estate were separate.

你知道，我是说，当然，如果你能通过某种安排把所有房地产都做到递延纳税，可能还能多榨出一点价值，但这在我看来不算什么大事。

You know, I mean, now, if you get all the real estate tax-deferred in some arrangement, you might get a little more out of it, but it doesn't strike me as a big deal.

8号区域。

Area 8.