M20:26
Charlie，你身上带银子了吗？
Do you have any silver on you, Charlie?
我们以前有过很多白银，不过现在没有了。
We had a lot of silver at one time, but we don't have it now.
最初那个决定，是我做的。我的判断是，白银的产量加上回收量——我现在记不清确切数字了——但大概比消费量少一亿盎司左右。
The original decision, my decision, was that the production of silver and the reclamation of silver—I don't remember the numbers exactly now, but they were running perhaps 100 million ounces or thereabouts less than the consumption.
后来呢，摄影方面的很多消费下降了，不过回收主要也来自那一块，所以这两边算是更趋于相互抵消了。
And now, a lot of consumption has gone down in photography, but that's where the reclamation was too, so that those tended more to balance each other out.
我最近这一年左右没有看过具体数据，但白银当时是处于供需失衡状态的。
I haven't looked at the figures for the last year or so, but silver was out of balance.
不过另一方面，地表上已经存在的白银数量也非常庞大。
Now, on the other hand, there were enormous quantities of silver above ground.
而且还有大量白银，可能会从别的用途里被拿出来，怎么说呢，比如珠宝之类、各种各样的东西，这些理论上都可能增加供应，就像八十年代初 Hunt brothers 那次事件发生时那样。
And there were huge quantities of silver that could possibly be removed from other uses, perhaps, you know, in jewelry and all kinds of things that could conceivably add to supply, as they did in the early 1980s when the Hunt brothers thing took place.
但总体来说，白银的生产和回收速度，还是低于它被消费的速度。
But overall, silver was being produced and reclaimed at a lesser rate than it was being consumed.
再加上一点，就是纯白银矿其实相对很少。
And added to that was the fact that there are relatively few pure silver mines.
白银大多是作为 copper、lead 和 zinc 的副产品被生产出来的，所以要快速增加产量并不容易。
Silver is largely produced as a byproduct of copper and lead and zinc, so that it was not easy to bring on added production.
所以这些因素加在一起，让我觉得白银在某个时候会变得紧缺。
So all of that added up to the fact that I thought that silver would get tight at some point.
而且就像我说的，我得出这个结论是太早了，卖出也卖早了。
And as I said, I was very—I was early in that conclusion, and I was early in selling.
所以我们现在没有白银。
So we have no silver now.
而且我们在这上面也没赚到多少钱。
And we did not make much money on it.
你说得对，它，它确实不会产生任何收益。
And you're right that it, it doesn't, it doesn't earn anything.
所以你就是拿着它坐在那里。
So you sit with it.
这跟持有股票不一样，因为股票在大多数情况下，收益是在不断为你积累的。
It's not like, it's not like sitting with a stock where in most cases earnings are piling up for you.
你，你只能指望一种大宗商品价格会上涨，因为它就那么摆在那里，看着你，本身并不会产出任何东西。
You, you have to hope that a, you have to hope that a commodity moves in price because it is not producing anything as it sits there looking at you.
这也是大宗商品的一个缺点。
And that's one of the drawbacks of commodities.
Charlie？
Charlie?